Recent incidents heighten anxieties that hybrid warfare tactics could trigger military confrontation with Russia. Lithuanian armed special forces and members of the Lithuanian Riflemen's Union take part in a military exercise in central Lithuania [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera] A member of the Lithuanian Riflemen's Union joins in military exercises in central Lithuania [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera] Along the forests and marshlands that separate the Baltic states from Russia and Belarus, workers are digging anti-tank ditches, pouring concrete bunkers and erecting rows of dragon's teeth - jagged concrete obstacles designed to slow and channel advancing armour - to buy precious time in the event of an attack. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reignited old fears in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where memories of Soviet rule remain close to the surface. In the years since, those fears have been channelled into preparation. Defence budgets have surged, military exercises have intensified, and new fortifications have emerged even as daily life largely continues as normal.

Recent weeks have seen a significant escalation of military tensions in and around the Baltics. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are all NATO members, now experience regular incursions into their airspace by Ukrainian drones. According to both Kyiv and the Baltic capitals, those drones, en route to hit targets in western Russia, get diverted by Russian electronic jamming and end up entering these countries' territories. In early May, several stray unmanned aircraft crashed in Latvia, one of them damaging an oil storage facility. Those developments triggered a political crisis in Latvia and led to the collapse of its government.

Estonia has said a Nato fighter jet shot down a drone, which it suspects was a Ukrainian projectile knocked off course by Russian electronic jamming, over its territory. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said a Romanian F-16 fired a missile and drone debris fell in a marshy area in central Estonia on Tuesday. Ukraine reacted by accusing Russia of deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones launched at legitimate military targets in Russia, apologising to Estonia and all of our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents. Russia has not commented on the latest in a series of recent drone incursions over Nato members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Last week, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned following a political crisis over Russia-bound Ukrainian drones straying into Latvian territory.

In this paper, we examine the development and usage of six low-resource machine translation systems translating between the Ukrainian language and each of the official languages of the Baltic states. We developed these systems in reaction to the escalating Ukrainian refugee crisis caused by the Russian military aggression in Ukraine in the hope that they might be helpful for refugees and public administrations. Now, two months after MT systems were made public, we analyze their usage patterns and statistics. Our findings show that the Latvian-Ukrainian and Lithuanian-Ukrainian systems are integrated into the public services of Baltic states, leading to more than 127 million translated sentences for the Lithuanian-Ukrainian system. Motivated by these findings, we further enhance our MT systems by better Ukrainian toponym translation and publish an improved version of the Lithuanian-Ukrainian system.

To illustrate how artificial intelligence (AI) could affect the future battlefield, consider the following scenario based on a future book I am writing entitled The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War over Limited Stakes. The scenario, imagined to occur sometime between now and 2040, begins with a hypothesized Russian "green men" attack against a small farming village in eastern Estonia or Latvia. Russia's presumed motive would be to sow discord and dissent within NATO, weakening the alliance. Estonia and Latvia are NATO member states, and thus the United States is sworn to defend them. But in the event of such a Russian aggression, a huge, direct NATO response may or may not be wise.